Adam Howitt's Blog

Nov 03
2004

Kerry ahead on Electoral Votes

At : 1:13 PM | Link | American History | Comments (2) | Send | 736 Views |

*If* you believe that the electoral college system is the way to go, at least keep it current. Based on the population for July 2003, there are large discrepancies between the number of Electoral Votes (EV) and the number each state would have by current population. California would get 65 votes! The table below shows how, by a modernization of Electoral Vote allocations would leave Kerry ahead of Bush 260 to 247 based on the state victories to this minute with Iowa, New Mexico and Ohio in the balance.

Methodology:
Population of state/Population of county = percent of allocated Electoral votes.
Percent EV * 538 (current total EV) = EV by Population.

So here goes:

          EV   EV by Pop  
State Pop 2003 % of Pop EV by Pop Actual EV Bush Kerry Bush Kerry
Alabama 4500752 1.55% 8.3264208 9 9 0 8.3264208 0
Alaska 648818 0.22% 1.200317567 3 3 0 1.200317567 0
Arizona 5580811 1.92% 10.32453705 10 10 0 10.32453705 0
Arkansas 2725714 0.94% 5.042588826 6 6 0 5.042588826 0
California 35484453 12.20% 65.64647142 55 0 55 0 65.64647142
Colorado 4550688 1.56% 8.418802728 9 9 0 8.418802728 0
Connecticut 3483372 1.20% 6.444261109 7 0 7 0 6.444261109
Delaware 817491 0.28% 1.512363726 3 0 3 0 1.512363726
DC 563384 0.19% 1.042264105 3 0 3 0 1.042264105
Florida 17019068 5.85% 31.48538773 27 27 0 31.48538773 0
Georgia 8684715 2.99% 16.06677987 15 15 0 16.06677987 0
Hawaii 1257608 0.43% 2.326583071 4 0 4 0 2.326583071
Idaho 1366332 0.47% 2.527723186 4 4 0 2.527723186 0
Illinois 12653544 4.35% 23.40913962 21 0 21 0 23.40913962
Indiana 6195643 2.13% 11.4619803 11 11 0 11.4619803 0
Iowa 2944062 1.01% 5.446534062 7 --- --- 0 0
Kansas 2723507 0.94% 5.038505862 6 6 0 5.038505862 0
Kentucky 4117827 1.42% 7.618007031 8 8 0 7.618007031 0
Louisiana 4496334 1.55% 8.318247471 9 9 0 8.318247471 0
Maine 1305728 0.45% 2.415605387 4 0 4 0 2.415605387
Maryland 5508909 1.89% 10.19151788 10 0 10 0 10.19151788
Massachusetts 6433422 2.21% 11.90187301 12 0 12 0 11.90187301
Michigan 10079985 3.47% 18.64803854 17 0 17 0 18.64803854
Minnesota 5059375 1.74% 9.359877024 10 0 10 0 9.359877024
Mississippi 2881281 0.99% 5.330388799 6 6 0 5.330388799 0
Missouri 5704484 1.96% 10.55333292 11 11 0 10.55333292 0
Montana 917621 0.32% 1.697604885 3 3 0 1.697604885 0
Nebraska 1739291 0.60% 3.217699789 5 5 0 3.217699789 0
Nevada 2241154 0.77% 4.146149639 5 5 0 4.146149639 0
New Hampshire 1287687 0.44% 2.382229419 4 0 4 0 2.382229419
New Jersey 8638396 2.97% 15.98108941 15 0 15 0 15.98108941
New Mexico 1874614 0.64% 3.468048229 5 --- --- 0 0
New York 19190115 6.60% 35.50183896 31 0 31 0 35.50183896
North Carolina 8407248 2.89% 15.55346409 15 15 0 15.55346409 0
North Dakota 633837 0.22% 1.172602619 3 3 0 1.172602619 0
Ohio 11435798 3.93% 21.15630151 20 --- --- 0 0
Oklahoma 3511532 1.21% 6.496357294 7 7 0 6.496357294 0
Oregon 3559596 1.22% 6.58527601 7 0 7 0 6.58527601
Pennsylvania 12365455 4.25% 22.87617307 21 0 21 0 22.87617307
Rhode Island 1076164 0.37% 1.990910478 4 0 4 0 1.990910478
South Carolina 4147152 1.43% 7.672258474 8 8 0 7.672258474 0
South Dakota 764309 0.26% 1.413976677 3 3 0 1.413976677 0
Tennessee 5841748 2.01% 10.80727222 11 11 0 10.80727222 0
Texas 22118509 7.61% 40.91938712 34 34 0 40.91938712 0
Utah 2351467 0.81% 4.350229415 5 5 0 4.350229415 0
Vermont 619107 0.21% 1.145352022 3 0 3 0 1.145352022
Virginia 7386330 2.54% 13.66475908 13 13 0 13.66475908 0
Washington 6131445 2.11% 11.34321357 11 0 11 0 11.34321357
West Virginia 1810354 0.62% 3.349166806 5 5 0 3.349166806 0
Wisconsin 5472299 1.88% 10.12378914 10 0 10 0 10.12378914
Wyoming 501242 0.17% 0.927300996 3 3 0 0.927300996 0
Total U.S. 290809777   538 538     247.1012492 260.827867

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  1. Only sort of makes sense the way you suggest.

    1) States automatically get electoral votes based on their senate seat. Your numbers don't take this into consideration.

    2) Populations are in flux, at what point of time do you use the #s?

    3) Who decides what the numbers are? Census bureau? (lots of controversy on the last census) Every 10 year census?

    Currently it is done by the number of senate & house seats you get I believe, so this changes infrequently (every 2 years with congressional changes).

    I agree that the numbers maybe slightly off because of population moves, but I'm not sure your solution is the best. It may help if we increased the voter turnout above the 50-60% range. Afterall, kind of ridiculous how many states had a 2% or less spread that affected the 'winner' and yet had such low turnout. We should be working to increase the educated turnout so the election is more representative of the people as a whole.

    Posted By Ryan : Posted At 11/3/04 12:41 PM
  2. In this proposed scenario, no one would win the election, and Congress would decide. Outcome? Same thing.

    Posted By Robert : Posted At 11/9/04 7:23 PM
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